AUD traders - heads preview up for RBA minutes due Tuesday 0030GMT

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Coming up Tuesday 17 December 2018 morning local time, Reserve Bank of Australia December meeting minutes

There is not a lot expected from the minutes. 

  • There may be an increased focus here given the recent shift in market pricing. 
  • In particular, we will watch the tone around housing after the wording became more cautious in the post-meeting statement.
  • ... RBA, at its December meeting, the Bank continued to keep the cash at 1.5%. With GDP data (released the day after) surprising to the downside, there appears little incentive for the Bank to bring forward any rate hike plans. While the Meeting Minutes will be watched with the usual amount of scrutiny for any policy clues - markets will likely have to wait until the New Year for any clues on how the soft GDP figures have impacted the RBA's growth outlook. 
  • Our expectations are that the RBA will be forced to shift down its forecast growth track, but being in little rush, any shifts to the Bank's assessment will require a few more prints of data. Markets will likely focus closely on any Board discussion on housing market developments, given some concerns surfaced in recent speeches concerning undue credit tightening moves by some banks.

(reminder, RBA next meet in February))
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