There was a consensus estimate of 31.0 but the ‘consensus’ is from only 3 estimates so take it with a grain of salt.
Senior loan officer survey -10.90. The prior senior loan officer survey was -10.8.
- Investment intentions +21 vs +19 in Q4
- Hiring intentions +46 vs +42 in Q4 — highest since Q2 2012
- Input prices +37 vs +19 in Q4 — largely due to CAD fall
- Pass-through to higher output prices mitigated by competition
- 63% of firms see inflation at 1-2% over next 2 years compared to 68% previously
- Business outlook survey (pdf)
- Senior loan officer survey (pdf)
Responses to the spring survey suggest that an improving U.S. economy and the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar, together with firms’ efforts to create new opportunities, are helping to support expectations for better growth prospects ahead.
Mixed report with sales trailing but the inflation pressures are higher up on the BOC’s radar and those will curb talk of rate cuts. USD/CAD initially moved 10 pips higher but has given back those gains and is trading at 1.0975.
Reading through the report, this comment stands out:
Following a period of low investment, a number of manufacturers indicated that they are planning to increase spending on machinery and equipment in an effort to improve competitiveness or to create opportunities for growth. Intentions to increase machinery and equipment investment are somewhat more prominent among small and medium-sized firms and among export-oriented firms. That said, many businesses continue to report that uncertainty—most often related to domestic demand or, in some cases, sector-specific or regulatory factors—is leading them to delay or shift the focus of their investment plans.
One of the underpinnings of the 2014 growth story throughout North America is investment but even in Canada, where exporters have been given a 10% boost due to the fall of the loonie, there is hesitancy.
