BOC Q4 Business Outlook Survey futures sales 8.0 vs 19.0 prior

Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

Highlights of the Bank of Canada Q4 Business Outlook survey

  • Prior was 19.0
  • Did sales grow over past 12 months +20 vs +13 prior
  • Investment intentions +29 vs +17 prior
  • Hiring +40 vs +34
  • Ability to deal with unexpected increase in demand. 'Significant difficulty' +12% vs 9%
  • 'Some difficulty' 44% vs 38%
  • Intensity of labor shortage 38% vs 35%
  • Input costs expected to grow 26% vs 0%
  • Output costs expected to grow +2% vs 0%
  • Inflation expectations and credit conditions little changed
  • Business Outlook Survey Indicator 2.49 vs 0.83 (close to Summer peak)
  • Expectations for sales activity remain positive but point to some moderation ahead
  • Indications of capacity pressures and labor shortages picked up 'reflecting strong demand and tightening labor markets'.
  • Many firms expect stable sales growth or a return to a more sustainable pace, especially in goods sector
  • Economic slack now largely limited to energy producing regions
  • Rising labor costs, often related to minimum wage rises and non-labor inputs, to put upward pressure on output prices
  • Firms plan to expand operations to accommodate sustained demand
  • Views on the US economy have strengthened due to expectations of upcoming tax reforms and strong US consumer demand
  • Full report

Aside from the dip in the future sales metric, there are plenty of reasons for the BOC to hike there. I think this solidifies the case for a rate rise on January 17. In addition, the wage indications are moving higher.

  • Senior loan officer survey -6.4 vs -0.5

A softer balance was likely expected due to higher rates and tightening rules.

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