BOC's Schembri: Trade war is primary concern, main risk to forecast

Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

Comments from BOC Deputy Lawrency Schembri:

Schembri
  • In contrast to global economy, Canadian data since July has surprised on the upside
  • Canadian economy has a "welcome degree of resilience" to possible negative economic developments
  • Degree of stimulus remains appropriate
  • Q2 GDP was 'much stronger' than forecast
  • Inflation has been 'well behaved' and controlled, economy is operating close to potential
  • Inverted yield curve is more-likely a sign that investors foresee weaker long-term growth
  • Economy is clearly past its earlier soft patch, with strong jobs and a rebounding housing market
  • National accounts data suggests some of the strength in GDP in Q2 could be temporary due to a jump in crude exports while imports were surprisingly weak
  • Core inflation around 2% in July consistent with the idea that economy's output gap is essentially closed
There is no hint or mention of a rate cut here. The market is pricing in a 40% chance of a cut in October. Unless there is a US-China blowup or data turns south, I don't believe the BOC plans to make a move.

He will take questions after the speech. Watch it live here:

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