Assuming market rate path, QE at 275 bln

  • BOE chart shows annual GDP growth around 3.1% in 2 years assuming market rate path, QE on hold
  • BOE chart shows CPI around 1.5% in Q4 2014 assuming market rate path, QE on hold
  • Inflation most likely to be below target than above in two years
  • Outlook for growth unusually uncertain, absence of credible solution to euro crisis poses biggest single risk to UK
  • UK growth likely to remain weak in near term, flat in Q4 due to global slowdown, euro crisis, bank strains, fiscal consolidation
  • MPC sees no meaningful way to quantify most extreme outcomes of euro zone crisis
  • Failure to resolve euro zone crisis would have significant implications for UK economy