The Bank of Japan Monetary April 25 2019 Policy Statement and revised outlook.
BOJ maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1 pct
- maintains 10-year JGB yield target around zero pct
- modifies forward guidance on interest rates
- will keep very low interest rates levels for extended period of time at least through around spring 2020
- to take steps contributing to continuation of powerful easing
to expand eligible collateral for BOJ's provision of credit
BOJ leaves unchanged pledge to buy JGBs in flexible manner so its holdings increase at annual pace of around 80 trln yen
BOJ decision on yield curve control made by 7-2 vote, board members Harada, Kataoka dissent
Board's median core CPI forecast for fiscal 2021/22 at +1.6 pct
- median core CPI forecast for fiscal 2020/21 at +1.4 pct vs 1.5 pct in Jan (slightly lowered)
- median core CPI forecast for fiscal 2019/20 at +1.1 pct vs 1.1 pct in Jan
Board's median real GDP forecast for fiscal 2021/22 at +1.2 pct
- median real GDP forecast for fiscal 2020/21 at +0.9 pct vs +1.0 pct projected in Jan
- median real GDP forecast for fiscal 2019/20 at +0.8 pct vs +0.9 pct projected in Jan
BOJ will relax terms and conditions for securities lending facility
- will consider introduction of ETF lending facility
- ETF lending facility would make it possible to temporarily lend ETFs to market participants
Deadline for fund provisioning to stimulate bank lending extended to June 30, 2021
- deadline for scheme to strengthen foundation for economic growth also extended to June 30, 2021
Japan's economy likely to continue expanding as a trend
- inflation likely to gradually accelerate toward 2 pct
- it will take longer than intended to achieve 2 pct inflation
- decided to clarify resolve to continue powerful easing taking into account impact of sales tax hike, uncertainty over overseas economies
- to maintain powerful easing to support improvements in output gap while ensuring economic , financial stability
- pace of improvement in prices, inflation expectations has remained slow compared to improvements in economy, job market
- medium-, long-term inflation expectations likely to rise gradually
- risks to price outlook skewed to downside
- risks to economic outlook skewed to downside
- economy's momentum for hitting price goal sustained but lacking strength
- Japan's economy expanding moderately though overseas slowdown affecting exports, output
- medium- to long-term inflation expectations have been more or less unchanged
- no sign so far of excessively bullish expectations in asset markets, financial institutions' activities
- prolonged downward pressure on financial institutions' profits from low rates could destabilise financial system
- risk of financial system destabilising not big for now as financial institutions have sufficient capital bases
(Quick headlines above via Reuters).
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OK, so those outlooks for GDP and CPI, net a little lower. Which makes sense given the recent data run.
On balance a bit of a downbeat view from the BOJ. Easing to remain in place (this was not expected to change and it hasn't) and they'll be looking at facilities to provide more stimulus.
Full text:
And, after all the waiting and all of this, yen is barely changed from just prior to the announcement.
next up, Governor Kuroda news conference at 0630GMT
