Clarida: If year-end inflation has not declined from mid-year that might be 'good evidence' that not transitory
Clarida on TV:
- Substantial progress is 'actual progress'
- We will have ample opportunities as data comes in to inform Fed observers on our progress
- 2% inflation as a ceiling does not serve our economy very well
- Higher headline inflation this year will be transitory
- US is going to be growing rapidly this year relative to other countries and he expects the current account deficit to widen
- If inflation at the end of the year has not declined from where it is at the middle of the year that might be 'good evidence' that inflation is not transitory
- There's still a big hole in the labor market
The lines about substantial vs actual progress are Fed standards at this point but I don't know if that really tells us much. Inflation reports are already running above a 2% annualized pace and the US added almost 1m jobs last month. That's actual 'progress', so it's more a question of how much progress we need to see.