Ever since the RBA decision back on May 5, and again since the accompanying statement on June 2 (which feels a LOT longer than a week ago) I've been watching the debate on whether the RBA has an easing bias or not
I have argued they do
But, I've heard good points from those I have a lot respect for saying no, they don't
I still lean toward two statements that I reckon sum it up best:
the "easing bias" probably not as strong as some had hoped, there is still an easing bias but upcoming data become more important
(you know who you are) ... and link to the post that's from
And also this, which I'm paraphrasing, and I don't recall where I heard it:
To ascertain a central bank's easing bias, listen to what they say in speeches, not in the accompanying statement
What about Stevens today, then ... is he making clear an easing bias or not?
What is very clear, though ... he is frustrated with the limits of monetary policy and he would like to see more fiscal work from the government, preferably on infrastructure spending. But, if he has to, I reckon he'll cut again.
