Due at 0130GMT, minutes of the July Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board.
The minutes of the previous meeting (June) were just a touch on the dovish side, and I expect the July minutes to be a little bit more so. Economic data since June has been softer than expected … not terrible (well, except for the trade data, that was terrible), but certainly under expectation. I expect the currency might feature as having been a topic of discussion, its move higher and stability since is a concern for the RBA. On Friday Steven’s tried talking down the AUD again
as he did a couple of weeks back too,
- RBA’s Stevens stomps on the AUD : Repeats AUD high by historical standards
- Some analyst reactions to RBA head Glenn Stevens jawboning the AUD lower today
Meanwhile, the AUD hasn’t done too much in the opening 24 hours or so of the week, yield-chasers are still lying in wait for it on dips, along with levered shorts getting impatient with a trade that is underperforming (/not working). Above 0.94 is going to be slow with plenty of sellers reappearing on that big figure. I’ll have the orderboard as Sydney gets into gear more fully.
–
As a ps. – also due at 0130GMT is some (lower tier) data from Australia,
- New Motor Vehicle Sales data for June m/m, prior was +0.3%
- New Motor Vehicle Sales data for June y/y, prior was -2.0%
–
Added:
Another ps. if the minutes are more dovish than expected today, the downside impact on the AUD will likley be muted due to Stevens’ jawboning of the currency recently (ee links above)
