ECB meeting coming up Europe time on Thursday - previews in one place

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

European Central Bank policy meeting announcement and Draghi news conference

due at 1145GMT and 1230 GMT respectively
Collating the earlier previews posted here

Westpac:
  • The ECB used the June policy meeting to affirm their forward guidance into 2019. It is very likely that the September meeting will continue the current stance with only minor changes to their activity forecasts. 
  • In June, we were told that asset purchases will be tapered again from October before ending completely in December, and that interest rates are on hold until the end of next summer. Still-low core inflation and a continued reduction of slack in the labour market backs up this stance. 
  • Since July's meeting, GDP growth printed at 0.4% in Q2, following Q1's 0.4% growth. Yet it is still a bit low relative to the ECB's 2.1% 2018 forecast, reflecting a faster than expected easing from 2017's brisk 2.5% year average pace as the boost from external demand fades. 
  • In September, the ECB are likely to slightly reduce their growth forecast, but their view for unemployment and core inflation remains intact and consistent with June's guidance



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