ECB sources: Policymakers shifting debate to steepness of rate path - report

Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

ECB sources cited by Reuters

  • Policymakers shifting debate to steepness of rate path as doves accept that QE should end this year
  • Policymakers broadly comfortable with market pricing for first hike in Q2-2019
  • Debate likely to be about the steepness of the rate hike path with doves fearful of stoking rate hike expectations
  • "I haven't seen a serious case for another extension," a source said. "But we need to carefully manage rate expectations, especially given the trade and fx risk."
  • Decision about taper likely to be taken relatively late -- in June or July -- because of worries about a potential trade war and FX

Reuters cites five sources with direct knowledge of ECB discussions.

The worry is that if the ECB signals one rate hike, the market will begin to price in a series of hikes and many policymakers don't want that. So it will come down to communication.