Opening statement from Draghi

The only change so far is that he says the gov council sees better momentum in the economy via sentiment indicators.

  • QE to be cut to €60bn in Apr and run until Dec, at least
  • QE can be adjusted and expanded at any time
  • ECB wants to see sustained inflation pickup
  • Survey results suggest recovery may broaden
  • 2017 GDP 1.8% vs 1.7% prior
  • 2018 1.7% vs 1.6% prior
  • 2019 1.6% vs 1.6% prior
  • Risks still tilted to downside
  • ECB sees no convincing upward trend in underlying inflation (core)
  • Headline CPI likely to remain close to 2.0%
  • Measure of underlying CPI likely to remain low over med term
  • 2017 CPI 1.7% vs 1.3% prior
  • 2018 1.6% vs 1.5% prior
  • 2019 1.7% unch

The CPI numbers are broadly in line with the leak but as expected, the euro isn't bothered. So far the upward pressure is coming on comments of the improvement in the recovery, which infers that the ECB may taper sooner. That said, EURUSD is sitting right smack in the middle again and the moves so far are marginal in real terms.

  • Other policy actors need to do more
  • Structural reforms need to be stepped up
  • All EZ countries need to step up efforts

Same old same old, statement over.