What's the timeline for cutting pandemic emergency programs?
The ECB is likely to announce plans to reduce pandemic PEPP bond purchases in Q4 according to a Reuters poll of economists. Most also see the program to be wrapped up by the end of Q1.
The eurozone rebound, rising vaccination rates and the framing of the 'pandemic emergency purchase program' make ending it a priority, especially for the more-hawkish ECB members.
There is talk of announcing a phase out as early as September but new variants could push out that timeline. 12 of 29 economists see a September announcement while others said Q4 (15), December (10) or H1 2022 (22).
On the actual start of tapering, 18 of 29 said before year end with 11 saying in 2022. Meanwhile, 29 of 34 forecast the program would be wrapped up by the end of March.
Growth expectations are 2.1% in Q3 and 1.2% in Q4. For 2021 it's seen at 4.6% and steady at 4.4% in 2022.