El-Erian: Fed likely to hike this year and commit to two more hikes

Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

Mohammed El-Erian is in the running to be a Fed governor

Former PIMCO co-CIO Mohammed El-Erian is out with a preview of Wednesday's FOMC decision. He sees a hike along with two more this year.

That falls slightly on the more-dovish side of the consensus, which is battling between 3 and 4 hikes in 2018.

He highlights five issues to watch including the balance of risks, dot plot, talk on the neutral rate, managing market volatility and international conditions.

"While the economic baseline (growth and inflation) will remain largely unchanged to a tiny bit more favorable, there is likely to be more debate among FOMC members about the appropriate specification of the balance of risks. Since the  last meeting, data and policy prospects have turned more mixed. Although some indicators of both domestic and foreign demand have weakened slightly, and some central bankers have expressed concerns about trade policy, the jobs report for February in particular was strong, with favorable prospects for both the demand side (particularly consumption) and supply side (particularly the potential for engaging slack) of the economy."

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