Mohamed A. El-Erian is chief economic adviser at Allianz
He has a piece up on Bloomberg:
- contrast between the implied market pricing for the fed funds rate and the central bank's "blue dots" … markets, anticipating no hikes this year and cuts thereafter, estimate the fed funds rate in 2020 a full percentage point below the median of the central bank's dots
Several reasons:
- Structural upside to the U.S. economy:
- The Fed has been again cowed by markets
- The economy is fine but politics could interfere
- Backward-looking data is at odds with forward indicators
- The rest of the world is getting worse by the day
- The global economy is too levered
Those are just the bullet points, more detail at the link here