Mohamed A. El-Erian is chief economic adviser at Allianz

He has a piece up on Bloomberg:

  • contrast between the implied market pricing for the fed funds rate and the central bank's "blue dots" … markets, anticipating no hikes this year and cuts thereafter, estimate the fed funds rate in 2020 a full percentage point below the median of the central bank's dots

Several reasons:

  1. Structural upside to the U.S. economy:
  2. The Fed has been again cowed by markets
  3. The economy is fine but politics could interfere
  4. Backward-looking data is at odds with forward indicators
  5. The rest of the world is getting worse by the day
  6. The global economy is too levered

Those are just the bullet points, more detail at the link here