European Central Bank monetary policy meeting this week - preview
This via Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz SE and someone well worth listening too
You don't have to agree, of course, but worth listening too (or, in this case, reading). Its good a good summary of background and goes on to the challenges now facing the Bank:
- an orderly gradual exit from prolonged reliance on unconventional interest-rate and balance-sheet measures, which seemed both feasible and desirable, has proven less obvious with the more recent change in the economic environment, including uncertainties in China, an important trading partner. Europe is now dealing with a slowdown in growth momentum
- The most likely outcome from the Jan. 24 meeting is that the ECB will seek to regain greater policy optionality but refrain from any new and major policy announcements. Based on a downgrade to its growth outlook, it will make the earlier interest-rate guidance more conditional; and it will leave open the possibility of a new quantitative-easing program should economic conditions deteriorate further.
Plenty more here at the link
ECB Prez Draghi