There are divergent interpretations of Powell's speech. The stock market response was clear, 'buy with ears pinned back'.

But, there a range of views on the speech. I posted SG and BMO responses here:

A few more responses:


  • rally following Powell's interest rates "just below" neutral is overstating the dovishness of his comments
  • says yes, the statement is different to his October comment on Fed "a long way" from neutral, but the market is seizing on any comment they can that suggests there'll be a pause
  • Powell also mentioned the positives on the economy & the outlook

Capital Economics:

  • don't think (Powell) was dovish, not really
  • didn't say inflation was weaker or the economy was weaker than we thought
  • a bit of an market overreaction

Pantheon Macroeconomics:

  • Chair Powell … actually said … rates are "just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral". This is just a simple statement of fact

Marc Chandler:

  • (the market purposefully) misinterpret Powell's comments
  • Not just below neutral as many say they heard, but below broad range of estimates of neutral level, which Sept SEP saw as 2.5%-3.5%
  • No sign that bottom of range appropriate
  • Powell (is) not signalling one and done


  • The Fed has said they wanted to go above neutral. If they wanted to be neutral, they could have walked that back

Oxford Economics:

  • an interpretation that Powell's comments is some sort of signal that Fed will pause after a December hike is not correct

Joe LaVorgna:

  • Powell sees solid economic growth … interest rates are "just below" neutral
  • suggests that the Fed could pause after next month's rate hike


  • Powell sounded more cautious about future rate hikes

Plenty there to choose from!