Fed dot plot primer: What will be the 2023 signal
The dot plot is in focus today
In the most-recent Federal Reserve forecasts there were 7 dots showing a hike in 2023 and 11 showing the first hike later.
That was a shift from December when just 5 Fed members forecast rate hikes in 2023.
The dot plot will be the first thing the markets look at because there's no threat of a change in rates or the pace of QE now. It's also a simple headline to digest.
Next will be any mentions of QE taper, something that's also highly unlikely in the statement.
Even if the median dot doesn't shift, even one dot in that direction would send a slightly more hawkish signal. Ultimately though, Powell is likely to brush off any change in his statement and highlight that the outlook for 2023 is highly uncertain and that they have plenty of time to evaluate.