Markets are pricing in about a one in three probability of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March

  • That's well short of the 50 percent minimum that has predicated every rate hike in the past quarter-century, according to data compiled by Bianco Research.

Quote from this Bloomberg piece: The Bond Market Is Calling Yellen's March Rate Hike Bluff


  • Reasons for the skepticism are varied
  • But one that stands out is Fed officials are running out of time to make their case
  • The February jobs report comes and then inflation data come out during the Fed's public blackout period (starts March 4)
  • "The market recognizes it has a veto over the Fed"
  • "it might be too late at that point for them to do anything, even if we get eye-popping numbers."


The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is March 15 and 16

  • The meeting will include updates to the Summary of Economic Projections
  • And a press conference by the Chair, Janet Yellen