Markets are pricing in about a one in three probability of a rate hike from the Federal Reserve in March
- That's well short of the 50 percent minimum that has predicated every rate hike in the past quarter-century, according to data compiled by Bianco Research.
Quote from this Bloomberg piece: The Bond Market Is Calling Yellen's March Rate Hike Bluff
- Reasons for the skepticism are varied
- But one that stands out is Fed officials are running out of time to make their case
- The February jobs report comes and then inflation data come out during the Fed's public blackout period (starts March 4)
- "The market recognizes it has a veto over the Fed"
- "it might be too late at that point for them to do anything, even if we get eye-popping numbers."
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting is March 15 and 16
- The meeting will include updates to the Summary of Economic Projections
- And a press conference by the Chair, Janet Yellen