Fed's Brainard: Employment-inflation relationship has broken down

Author: Greg Michalowski | Category: Central Banks

Feds Lael Brainard speaking

  • trade conflict creating uncertainty
  • consumers remain confident, job market is strong
  • now is a bad time to weaken rules on biggest banks
  • underlying trend inflation somewhat below that 2% goal
  • sees benefits of letting inflation run mildly above 2%
  • couple years overshoot may boost price expectations
  • repeat support for turning on countercyclical buffer
  • low unemployment is helping workers at the margin of the labor market, but continued low interest rates do raise financial market risks
  • wage inflation poses risks that households and businesses could set expectations in a way that makes it harder for the Fed to hit its inflation goal in the future
Those comments are dovish on net but don't really tell you if they would simply let inflation run, or would cut rates to get inflation above 2%. At the moment, that's a critical distinction.
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