Feds Bullard speaking ahead of the quiet period

Fits Bullard
  • wait and see on inflation because we've been too low
  • Fed policy can be less preemptive on inflation
  • May see more inflation in 2021, 2022 then we are used to
  • looks like were going to have robust economy in 2021
  • markets trust the Fed to keep inflation under control
  • would welcome inflation above 2% on a sustained basis
  • it's okay if were 0.5% above feds target for some time
  • better outlook is bringing real yields higher
  • 10 year yields now returning to pre-pandemic levels
  • would be concerned by disorderly trading; we are not at that point
  • still need a lot of repair in the labor market
  • getting lots of reports about shortages of goods and products
  • makes sense that commodity prices would be on a tear as pandemic nears end
  • commodity price jump doesn't equal sustained inflation
  • sees unemployment falling to 4.5% by the end of 2021 (the current unemployment rate is 6.2%)
  • could see inflation above 2% by the year end

The Feds quiet period is set to start tomorrow and runs to March 18th. The FOMC meets on March 16-17 with the decision announced on March 17th.