Fed's Clarida: Gradual taper concluding mid-2022 may soon be warranted
Comments from the Fed vice chair
- Risks to inflation are to the upside
- Fed would react to persistent upside move in inflation expectations but that isn't happening now
- Decision on pace of asset purchases won't be intended to carry signal about timing of rate hikes
- Labor market progress has been notable
- Inflation running 'well above' moderate overshoot of 2% goal
- This year's unwelcome inflation surge will be largely transitory
- Bar for taper on inflation 'more than' met while on employment it's 'all but met'
This is similar to his September speech.
- The big unknown is how long it will take bottlenecks to be resolved
- There is a flavor of stagflation right now
- Stagflation is not my baseline case and I don't think it will be the trend going forward
- Delta has complicated the signal on the labor market