Comments from Evans

  • Economy really "quite solid"
  • There is a lot of uncertainty due to trade
  • We are on a good growth path, not "outrageously" strong
  • Strong economy can continue "until something happens"
  • Feels markets are incorporating uncertainty and nervousness in current bond pricing
  • Shape of yield curve is a concern but feels good economic fundamentals could go on indefinitely
  • Fed needs to be on-guard but not trying to overcome risks that have not yet materialized
  • Calls it a mid-cycle adjustment
  • Fed well positioned now to see how things play out

I'm was looking for a hint about when he thinks the Fed should cut next -- Oct or Dec. Instead, I got a hint that he might not want to cut at all. It sounds like he won't be supporting a cut unless the data turn lower between now and the end of October.