Fed's Kaplan sees a muted rebound from here

Author: Adam Button | Category: Central Banks

Comments from Kaplan on Bloomberg TV

Fed Kaplan
  • Expects unemployment rate at 9-10% at year end unless they can manage the virus better
  • Repeats that he sees US economy shrinking 4.5-5.0% this year
  • I would far prefer that forward guidance is tied to our dual mandate. I would not be in favor of tying it to just inflation
  • "The inflation dynamic is different now" Technology-enabled disruption and globalization has changed the way inflation works, so we can run it hotter now
  • We would be wise to be cognizant and concerned about our effects on risk assets. It's important that we emphasize that these programs will lapse
  • Fed support creates its own fragiilities in the markets and we should be very cognizant of that
  • Gasoline demand has recovered to the high 80s percentages or 90% but recovery in demand has stalled
  • You'lll have a difficult oil market for the next 12 months. I think it will begin to firm late next year. US production likely to fall to 10.8 mbpd at year end.
  • We need to study embedded leverage in markets
There is nothing new here. We will hear from Bullard, Barkin and Evans later.

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