Comments by Minneapolis Fed president, Neel Kashkari
- Thinks that true unemployment rate is 23% to 24%
- But report likely to show a lower number
- Says can avoid depression scenario but US is in for a long gradual recovery
The expectation for the unemployment rate tomorrow is for a jump to 16.0%, although the economist estimates vary wildly from as low as 11.6% to as high as 22.0%.
If you're wondering what Kashkari is talking about above, he is mainly referring to the definition of what the unemployment rate captures - that being "people who are jobless, looking for jobs within the last 4 weeks, and available for work".
According to the Bureau of Labour Statistics, "people who are neither employed nor have looked for a job within the last 4 weeks are not included in the labour force".
Just some food for thought to wrap your head around ahead of the jobs report tomorrow.