A note via CIBC on the Fed minutes released Wednesday in the.
Comments from CIBC (in brief and nothing surprising):
- minutes … reveal central bankers are now more or less on the same page for what lies ahead
- most officials saw rates as 'well calibrated'
- most policymakers believed it would take a 'material reassessment of the outlook' to alter that view
- Many participants ... cited improvements in spending on interest-rate sensitive sectors and residential investment, two areas of the economy which had looked soft earlier in the year
- Several went a step further to state that the data and models they were looking at showed that the likelihood of a recession had decreased heading into that last rate cut
- However, not all agreed that the Fed was completely out of the woods just yet with the trade-war, global growth slowdown and low inflation making the near-term risks still skewed to the downside
- Overall, the minutes suggest there's more harmony amongst Fed voters on the path forward, reinforcing our view that the central bank is likely on pause unless a significant downside risk emerges.
