RBNZ Financial stability report due at the start of the new trading day.

At the close of today and start of the new day (i.e. at 5 PM ET/2100 GMT), the RBNZ will release the financial stability report (a review of inflation, growth and other economic conditions). Later (2300) RBNZ Gov. Wheeler will give his take on the report during a press conference. Whenever he speaks, the market expects that he will look to talk down the value of the NZD. It does not always work, but that is his bias. Wheeler has already said expects rates to remain unchanged for an extended period of time, even though he fights to contain a rising housing market.

Going into the report, the NZDUSD is trading at the highest level since March 2nd (nearly 3 months ago). Over the last 13 trading days, the price has been higher on 10 of those days. and the price has moved from a low of 0.6817 to 0.7096.

Although off the low, technically, the pair is testing the 50% of move down from the 2017 high to the 2017 low at 0. 7096. The 200 day MA is at 0.71046 today. Both those levels are key turning point for bulls and bears. A move above should tilt the traders even more to the bullish side, while staying below is more bearish. On a break above, the market will look toward the 61.8% retracement of the years trading range at 0.71617. Above that and the 0.7246 will be the next target.

Looking at the hourly chart, the price rise has been more reluctantly going higher over the last week or so. Although the price is up and down, the trend is still stepping higher. The price has also stalled falls near the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below currently at 0.70491). Also near that MA level is the 100 day MA at 0.7055.

Needless to say, should there be a sell off on the report and press conference, that area (0.7049-0.7055) will be key. Like the 200 day MA and the 50% retracement above, this area is a key barometer for the bulls and bears.

SUMMARY: The "market" has positioned the NZDUSD right at a key area from a technical perspective on the daily chart. The 200 day MA at 0.7104 and the 50% retracement (at 0.7095) are key levels that traders should lean against with stops above.

On the downside, the 100 hour MA and 100 day MA are equally as telling for traders. Should the level (between 0.7049 and 0.7055) hold on a dip, that keeps the buyers more in control. A move below and there should be further selling pressure.