Goldman Sachs Federal Reserve FOMC preview
Adam posted a great FOMC preview earlier:
The expectation is for a rate hike, as close to a unanimous expectation you could get.
GS is down with that. But, there is more to watch out for says the bank:
The FOMC looks very likely to raise rates at this week's meeting, the first with Chairman Powell at the helm.
- With tax cuts now implemented and an additional boost from higher federal spending this year, we believe most participants are embracing the "from headwinds to tailwinds" narrative.
- Reflecting this, encouraging growth data, and further evidence that core inflation is moving back to target, we expect a slightly hawkish tone
- Public remarks by Fed officials suggest a broad shift in the committee's outlook towards a potentially faster pace of tightening, and we expect the median dot to show four hikes in 2018, up from three at the December meeting.
- Additional hawkish changes-a move to three hikes in 2019 or an increase in the longer-run funds rate estimates-are also possible but not our base case.