The analysts at Credit Agricole are speculating so at least in an article posted from our good friends at efxnews.com says that the SNB have actually already been in supporting EURCHF from the lows and have been actively selling AUD and NOK in a rebalancing of reserves
It could be a 2+2=5 theory given that the AUD makes up only a smallish part of existing reserves (still enough to cause a stir in AUDUSD though ) and trying to explain away the recent AUD falls but, hey, it’s worth throwing out there.
Follows on nicely from an exchange I’ve been having with Mr Sir in this thread where he suggested that some “smoothing” ( my term) may have already been/currently going on and I noted the BOE selling parcels of cable in the rally to 1.7200+ in their massaging to add to reserves
We won’t know for sure until the October bulletin from the SNB, or indeed get further evidence from Thursday’s meeting, but if I glean anything more from my sources then I’ll let you know ofc.
EURCHF currently 1.2098 having run into the offers at 1.2120-25. USDCHF 0.9361 off the 0.9368 highs after the softer producer price data earlier.
Add: We have been having a debate in the thread ( see below) and I have now just written that on a re-read I’m going to put my hand up and say that I think I got Credit Agricole’s gist wrong.. they refer to “recent price action” and I thought they meant the AUD sell off cos they mentioned that ccy, but on reflection I now also agree they mean the rally on EURCHF. That’s not to say they couldn’t have bought some EURAUD,(would certainly be welcomed by the RBA ) to offload at some point, and it’s a dangerous game to be offering out the Euros bought down at 1.2050 area so soon into the market if that was the case.. Normally they would leave that strategy til Euro was out the immediate mire.
Damn these early morning starts sometimes!