Sept 16-17 Fed decision was equally surprising

There was an extensive debate about whether the Federal Reserve would hike in September and when they didn't, the US dollar tumbled. least it did for a moment.

EUR/USD shot to 1.1450 from 1.1300 after the decision. It peaked about 20 hours later and then tumbled back to unchanged. Three days later, it was at 1.1100.

There was a similar turnaround in the stock market. The S&P 500 first rallied 25 points and then plunged more than 120 in the next two weeks.

Here is what people said after the Sept 17 FOMC decision:

"It felt like a dovish result with a dovish statement," said Carl R. Tannenbaum, chief economist at Northern Trust in Chicago. "Before this meeting, there was a supposition that they'd set the table for a future move. I didn't see any silverware in this announcement, and I think October is off the table."

"I don't think they are in much of a hurry," he added. "The international situation must have generated a real re-evaluation."

Still, other experts argued that the central bank is prepared to move as soon as global conditions improve, illustrating the uncertainty that will persist until at least the next Fed meeting in late October - or more likely until the last gathering of the year for policy makers in mid-December.

"The global deterioration has caught their attention and, clearly, that was the main factor," said Michael Hanson, senior United States economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Sound familiar?