Is the Fed rate cut this month locked in - despite data flow still to come? Yes.

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

The Federal Open Market Committee meet on July 30 and 31, and between now and then there is still US data to come.

  • Both macro economic reports
  • and firms' earnings reports
So, is a 25bp cut locked in?

Scotia Bank says say (I agree FWIW):
  • rate cut is pretty much guaranteed
  • (incoming) incremental information is unlikely to impact that decision
  • it is important to discount the macro activity readings in the face of a) continued below target core PCE inflation; and b) still heightened uncertainty toward forward-looking risks not least of which being in terms of trade policy that has generally disappointed 

Federal Open Market Committee meet on July 30 and 31


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