Is the Fed rate cut this month locked in - despite data flow still to come? Yes.
The Federal Open Market Committee meet on July 30 and 31, and between now and then there is still US data to come.
- Both macro economic reports
- and firms' earnings reports
So, is a 25bp cut locked in?
Scotia Bank says say (I agree FWIW):
- rate cut is pretty much guaranteed
- (incoming) incremental information is unlikely to impact that decision
- it is important to discount the macro activity readings in the face of a) continued below target core PCE inflation; and b) still heightened uncertainty toward forward-looking risks not least of which being in terms of trade policy that has generally disappointed