Latest Reuters poll has 40% of analysts expecting a Fed rate cut this year

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Reuters poll for June on FOMC forecasts. The poll in May only had 8% expecting a cut this year.

Other results:
  • median 55% chance of one FOMC rate cut by end 2019
  • 40% chance of two rate cuts

And, on the chance of a US recession in next 12 months

  • median 30%
  • While 40% tip for within 24 months (vs 25%; 40% in May's poll)
More via Reuters:
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the central bank would act "as appropriate" to address risks from the U.S.-China trade war, leaving the door open for a possible rate cut. That is the second sudden shift in the Fed's tone after it changed its policy bias away from steady tightening in January. 
  • While many economists now argue the Fed is likely to cut rates this year, some said they were reluctant to change their base case forecasts for the federal funds rate immediately, citing rapidly changing developments on trade talks. 

Reuters poll for June on FOMC forecasts. The poll in May only had 8% expecting a cut this year.


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