Long enough to cover the essentials, short enough to keep it interesting (spoiler - ECB preview)

Here is another preview of the European Central Bank meeting today (Thursday).

Its another quickie, this time via CBA here in Oz, with a EUR 'upside risk' to watch out for:

• We do not expect the ECB policy decision tonight to be a major driver of EUR.
• We expect no policy change.
• We expect the ECB to reiterate that risks are broadly balanced and accommodative policies are required as long as core inflation remains subdued.
• Core inflation is currently very low at only 0.7%pa.
• An upside risk to EUR tonight is if Draghi mentions ending asset purchases in his post-meeting press conference.

And, CBA add a little on the French election impact:

• There is no evidence that Le Pen's decision to temporarily stand down as head of the National Front has effected voter intentions
• Macron's lead over Le Pen remains very large according to polls released overnight
• We do not expect the French election to be a driver of EUR now that Macron is set to be the next French President

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Earlier posts on the ECB meeting:

• Here is a shorter ECB preview (NAB)
• ECB preview: Is this Draghi's last chance to talk down the euro?
• European Central Bank meet today - the times to watch (announcements etc.)
• BoA / Merrill Lynch on what to expect from the European Central Bank today and further out (this is a long piece)