Here is another preview of the European Central Bank meeting today (Thursday).

Its another quickie, this time via CBA here in Oz, with a EUR 'upside risk' to watch out for:

  • We do not expect the ECB policy decision tonight to be a major driver of EUR.
  • We expect no policy change.
  • We expect the ECB to reiterate that risks are broadly balanced and accommodative policies are required as long as core inflation remains subdued.
  • Core inflation is currently very low at only 0.7%pa.
  • An upside risk to EUR tonight is if Draghi mentions ending asset purchases in his post-meeting press conference.

And, CBA add a little on the French election impact:

  • There is no evidence that Le Pen's decision to temporarily stand down as head of the National Front has effected voter intentions
  • Macron's lead over Le Pen remains very large according to polls released overnight
  • We do not expect the French election to be a driver of EUR now that Macron is set to be the next French President


Earlier posts on the ECB meeting: