Majority of economists expect the FOMC to cut by 25bp in September 2019

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Reuters polling on the outlook for the Federal Reserve policy path ahead

  • most expect a Sep rate cut
  • then another in 'late' 2020
  • median 45% probability of the US recession in the next two years
  • "By cutting rates, the Fed is unintentionally underwriting the trade war," said Aditya Bhave, senior global economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "We worry about an adverse feedback loop in which the Fed eases and things get better: financial markets, the economy and so on. That encourages more escalation in the trade war - things get worse and then the Fed eases again."
 Reuters poll conducted Aug 6-8 

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