The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research have a Monetary Policy Shadow Board
In brief:
- recommends RBNZ keeps the Official Cash Rate (OCR) on hold this Thursday
- Shadow Board has shifted to a tightening bias
- "Annual inflation has edged back up to within the Reserve Bank's 1 to 3 percent target band, and there is solid momentum in the New Zealand economy. The Shadow Board sees very little need for further easing"
Plenty more detail here at the NZIER
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About the Shadows:
Shadow Board participants share out 100 points across possible interest rates to indicate what they believe is the most appropriate Official Cash Rate setting for the economy. Combined, these scores form a Shadow Board view ahead of each monetary policy decision.
Participants show where they think interest rates should be, not what they believe will happen.
The NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board aims to:
- encourage informed debate on each interest rate decision
help inform how a Board structure might operate
explore how Board members could use probabilities to express uncertainty.
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And, about the RBNZ this week:
Timings:
- OCR announcement is due at 2000GMT Wednesday 8 February, which is Thursday local time in NZ
- Monetary policy Statement is also due at 20000GMT Wednesday
- Wheeler's press conference follows an hour later, 2100GMT Wednesday
- Wheeler appears before committee in parliament at 0010GMT Thursday 9 February 2017
I've posted some previews:
- RBNZ meet Thursday 9 February - preview (Goldman Sachs)
- RBNZ meet Thursday 9 February - preview (#2)
- Currency preview into the RBA & RBNZ this week: "AUD/NZD could head lower"
