Morgan Stanley have revised their call for an earlier first Federal Open Market Committee rate hike, but its still a ways off.
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- With inflation likely remaining at or above 2%, maximum employment is the next threshold for the Fed's first rate hike.
- We now believe the FOMC will judge that it has been reached in 2Q23, and our expectation for the first rate hike moves up to 2Q23 from 3Q23, with two 25bp hikes in 2023 to end the year at 0.625%. The rapid decline in the unemployment rate in our base case need not generate a significant rise in inflation, given rising labour supply
- An absence of a late-cycle rise in labour supply, on the other hand, could drive notably higher-than-expected inflation, complicating the Fed's assessment of what constitutes maximum employment. That could set the stage for a move towards policy tightening before the pre-pandemic level of employment is reached
(bolding mine for TL;DR purposes)