NZD more likely to be moved by US-China trade war developments than the RBNZ

BNZ comments on Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr's remarks yesterday

• Earlier in the week we noted the record net short speculative positions in the NZD based on CFTC data, setting the scene for a possible contrarian bounce on any positive news. The NZD bounce should be seen in that context. We saw a similar movement after the OCR review which wasn't sustained. The "news" content of both the OCR Review and Orr's speech was both fairly minimal, but heavy short positioning is apt to create some additional volatility.

And, ahead:

• The course of the NZD over the rest of the year is more likely to be determined by developments in the US-China trade war than any NZ monetary policy tweaks.