The Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting for 13 November 2019. Announcement due at 0100GMT.

  • Accompanied by the latest Monetary Policy Statement
  • And followed by the media conference with Governor Orr at 0200GMT.

Previews already posted:

Greg's latest update is here:

Some final quickie previews.


  • widely expected to announce a 25bp reduction in the OCR to 0.75%
  • Key for markets will be forward guidance signals (via language and OCR forecast).

Via BNZ:

  • most economists are picking a 25bps rate cut
  • the market sees the same risk
  • there is always the chance that the committee errs on the side of common sense and public opinion and leaves the OCR unchanged
  • Our business contacts continue to point to the futility of further rate cuts, and the 50bps August cut seemingly had a negative impact on confidence.
  • We'd see a rate cut having a small downward impact on short-end rates and NZD and much less of an impact at the longer end of the curve, if any.
  • The NZD looks significantly oversold against our short-term fair value model, so the removal of this risk event could easily support the currency once the dust settles. A no-change decision could see rates shift higher by 10-15bps, led by the front-end of the curve, while the NZD would clearly strengthen.