Speaking on a panel at the annual meeting of the American Economics Association

  • Worries over yield curve inversion inflated; but keeping a watchful eye
  • Sees GDP growth in 2018 a little under 2.5%
  • Says very little slack left in labor market
  • Expects small rising unemployment rate after this year
  • Monthly job gains may be 100K by end of 2019
  • Iinflation to run a bit above 2% in 2019
  • Inflation to fall back to 2% target in 2020
  • Soft inflation persists, may make it 2% target even harder to reach
  • Could be time to reevaluate how Fed conducts policy, though not advocating a specific change

Comments from Harker are more on the dovish side. The Feds dot plot is expecting three hikes in 2018.