Poll - Most economists expect the BOJ's next move is further easing - but not next week

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Reuters polling ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting, announcement September 19

  • 33 of 41 economists said next move would be to ease further
  • 13 of 30 economists expected BOJ to ease further in September, 10 said in October, five said in December

More from Reuters on the poll:

  • Sources have told Reuters BOJ policymakers are more open to discussing the possibility of expanding stimulus at their Sept. 18-19 board meeting, and are also discussing ways of deeping negative rates at minimal cost
  • "Risks to the global economy have risen, such as the intensifying U.S.-China trade friction," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economist at Shinkin Central Bank Research Institute. "The BOJ will need to show its resolve to ramp up stimulus to prevent the yen from strengthening." 

On what tools the BOJ could deploy (This question allowed multiple answers. ): 

  • 22 respondents said the bank would tweak its forward guidance
  • Seventeen said the BOJ would widen the band at which 10-year government bonds fluctuate around its 0% target so yields can fall further
  •  The number of those who forecast the BOJ would deepen negative rates from the current -0.1% more than doubled to eight from just three in August
  • Seven said the central bank would increase the amount of assets purchased such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs)


I posted earlier a quickie preview of the meeting:

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