Powell Q&A: It's clear we're on a path to a very strong labor market
Comments to reporters
- If we look 1-2 years out, we'll be looking at "a very, very strong employment market"
- There are very large amounts of job openings and lots of people looking for work and the process of filling those vacancies is slower than anticipated. "It may just take longer"
- Notes that vaccinations should diminish the reluctance of people to return to work along with restart of daycare
- Unemployment insurance for around 15m people will end by the September
- I would expect that we would see strong job creation building up over the summer
- We have to be humble about our ability to understand the data
- Inflation has come in above expectations in the coming months but prices driving that are items that are directly affected by the reopening
- You can see this meeting as the 'talking about talking about' meeting
- We did not have a discussion of whether liftoff is appropriate in any particular year
- The dots are not a great forecaster of rate moves and should be taken with a big grain of salt
- "Many participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the committee forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated. That would be a welcome development."
- We will have to see what the effect on money markets should be due to IOER changes
- There's the possibility inflation could be quite low going forward
- "Inflation expectations have continued to move up"
- Seeing the inflation performance that we had.
- "It wouldn't surprise me, if there's an element for some people -- seeing the inflation performance that we've had -- thinking that they have more confidence in seeing inflation above 2%; that it may not be as hard to do that as we thought. Inflation expectations may move up as a consequence of this."
This is the end of the 'outcome-based Fed'. Powell is making all kinds projections about the coming months with an unusual amount of confidence that goes against what he's been saying for months.
It's almost like they saw something in the numbers and projections that spooked them. All that talk about letting inflation run hot and waiting to see numbers to ensure a 'broad and inclusive' recovery is dead.