Due at 0130 on 21 April 2015 are the Minutes of the April Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, here's a preview and what to look for.

The big, immediate question for markets is how likely the RBA is to cut rates at its May meeting (due May 5).

While we'll be looking for indications in the Minutes we've also seen some improvement in the data since then. For example, business confidence up on the month (yeah, its only a pop on one month and more evidence needs to be seen), and last week's employment report exceeded expectations.

In March the RBA said they decided to hold rates (the market was widely expecting a cut) because

"members saw benefit in allowing some time for the structure of interest rates and the economy to adjust to the earlier change. They also saw advantages in receiving more data to indicate whether or not the economy was on the previously forecast path".

This is likely a key to watch. A similar passage (or absence thereof ...) will provide a strong hint.


Note, we get Australian CPI for Q1 on Wednesday. While its unlikely to show much of a change from current low levels the impact of the fall in the Australian dollar may soon start to show up more in inflation data (and its probably worth noting that the fall in the NZD hasn't had a huge impact on inflation there - we got the most recent official data yesterday).