We have the latest UK CPI and RPI coming up at 09.30 GMT and we already know that the BOE’s expectations have been lowered as have that of the markets
So says the latest inflation report which we got from Carney & Co last week where they cut 2014 forecasts to 1.2% vs 1.9% prev and 2015 to 1.4% vs 1.7% prev saying the inflation rate is likely to fall below 1% within 6 months but sees 2% target at end of 3-year forecast period
November’s full report can be found here
So we shouldn’t be expecting any surprisess to the upside today but that’s not to say a lower reading has not already been factored in. Lower commodity and food prices continue to press lower and dampen expectations but wages are showing a small improvement beating this low inflation rate for the first in ages last week
Credit Agricole has this to say, courtesy of our friends at efxnews.com
We expect CPI inflation to decline to 1.1% YoY in October, from 1.2% YoY in September, with the CPI index remaining roughly stable on the month. Core inflation is expected to ease further to 1.3% YoY versus 1.5% YoY in the previous month, reaching its lowest since the beginning of 2009. Oil prices lost 10% in October (in USD prices), while the effect of changes in the exchange rate (the GBP appreciated by 5% in the first half of the year) is likely to have an impact on inflation for a relatively long period of time. Domestic inflationary pressures have remained subdued given still-weak wages growth (despite a faster-than-expected pick-up in August and September) and the slightly negative growth in unit labour costs.
Median forecasts are as follows
UK inflation data forecasts Nov 18
GBPUSD currently 1.5658 EURGBP 0.7973
