The European Central Bank meet Thursday, some really quick preview action from a few banks

Announcement due 1245GMT, along with President Draghi's press conference

  • Main financing rate currently at 0%, expected to be left unchanged
  • Marginal lending facility rate currently at 0.25%, expected unchanged
  • Deposit facility rate currently at -0.4% and expected (go on, have a guess) to be left unchanged

Bank of America / Merrill Lynch:

  • The truce between hawks & doves will be reflected in a dovish Draghi
  • Draghi will use extended QE as intended


  • Expect that policy likely to be unchanged
  • Watching for any sign forward guidance on rates could be dampened


  • Despite likely much higher 2017 HICP they see no change to rates, nor to the size of QE, nor to forward guidance
  • Perhaps the balance of risks changes to neutral


  • European Central Bank is in a holding mode, assessing incoming data
  • Will be no change to policy or statement
  • September will bring tapering announcement


  • Not expecting any significant change
  • Bias of policy toward less easing in future, rather than more


  • Policy to be left unaltered
  • No change to Q/E


  • ECB to leave policy, statement, forward guidance unchanged
  • There is a lack of up trend in core CPI
  • Likelty to revise growth and CPI expectations higher


  • ECB on hold
  • And will be throughout the year (excepting an unforseen economic shock)
  • Likely to recognise positive economic developments, but their focus to remain on lingering slack (soft core inflation & high unemployment outside Germany) - therefore remains need for continued extraordinary support of the economy

(OK, that's 7!)