The European Central Bank meet Thursday, some really quick preview action from a few banks
Announcement due 1245GMT, along with President Draghi's press conference
- Main financing rate currently at 0%, expected to be left unchanged
- Marginal lending facility rate currently at 0.25%, expected unchanged
- Deposit facility rate currently at -0.4% and expected (go on, have a guess) to be left unchanged
Bank of America / Merrill Lynch:
- The truce between hawks & doves will be reflected in a dovish Draghi
- Draghi will use extended QE as intended
Barclays
- Expect that policy likely to be unchanged
- Watching for any sign forward guidance on rates could be dampened
Citi
- Despite likely much higher 2017 HICP they see no change to rates, nor to the size of QE, nor to forward guidance
- Perhaps the balance of risks changes to neutral
Commerzbank
- European Central Bank is in a holding mode, assessing incoming data
- Will be no change to policy or statement
- September will bring tapering announcement
Deutsche
- Not expecting any significant change
- Bias of policy toward less easing in future, rather than more
Goldman
- Policy to be left unaltered
- No change to Q/E
RBC
- ECB to leave policy, statement, forward guidance unchanged
- There is a lack of up trend in core CPI
- Likelty to revise growth and CPI expectations higher
Westpac:
- ECB on hold
- And will be throughout the year (excepting an unforseen economic shock)
- Likely to recognise positive economic developments, but their focus to remain on lingering slack (soft core inflation & high unemployment outside Germany) - therefore remains need for continued extraordinary support of the economy
(OK, that's 7!)
