For a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today, Tuesday 2 April 2019:
- Hey, hey its RBA day! Preview
- How will the AUD respond to the RBA announcement today? 3 scenarios.
- RBA monetary policy meeting - preview
- AUD traders heads up - preview of the RBA meeting on 2nd April 2019
And, after the RBA … MOAR Aussie info to come:
But, HSBC have an outlook further out, this in summary:
- It is clear that the bar for the RBA cutting its cash rate is very high. It remains our view that while the labour market still has positive momentum the RBA will be able to credibly argue that wages growth should continue to rise and that should be enough to keep them from considering cutting the cash rate. In our view, the RBA would need to believe that the unemployment rate was set to rise materially (most likely to 5.5%) before they would consider cutting the cash rate.
- Our central case is that the unemployment rate will continue to edge lower in coming quarters. This is also conditioned on our economists' positive view on the global outlook, and particularly China. However, if it turns out that global growth weakens more sharply, or that China has a hard landing, the RBA would clearly have considerable scope to deliver policy stimulus.