RBA meeting today - For AUD the "balance of risks appears skewed to the upside"

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

You can a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today (Tuesday 2 July 2019) here (OK, more than one!)

And, this on AUD:
More previews thoughts, and on the AUd from INg:
  • We believe that, on the day, the balance of risks for the AUD appears skewed to the upside, considering that the markets may have overstated (78%) the probability of a rate cut at this meeting
  • Furthermore, the persistent market's short positioning on the AUD suggests a higher potential for upside pressure as positions are squared
Further out (bolding mine):
  • In the longer term, external factors will likely be the predominant drivers of AUD/USD and the lack of a clear resolution in the US-China trade tensions suggests that a re-escalation is still possible. 
  • A cut in July or August by the RBA may, therefore, have a limited impact on the long-term AUD outlook. As long as the central bank maintains its easing bias, the upside potential for AUD will likely be limited, leaving it to trade-related news to move the market. 

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