RBA meeting today - For AUD the "balance of risks appears skewed to the upside"
You can a preview of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting today (Tuesday 2 July 2019) here (OK, more than one!)
- Here is what the AUD needs to do to prompt an RBA rate cut
- RBA interest rate decision due today - here's a bank not expecting a rate cut
- RBA monetary policy decision due July 2 2019 - preview (most expect a rate cut)
- RBA likely to deliver second cut today - BAML
And, this on AUD:
More previews thoughts, and on the AUd from INg:
- We believe that, on the day, the balance of risks for the AUD appears skewed to the upside, considering that the markets may have overstated (78%) the probability of a rate cut at this meeting
- Furthermore, the persistent market's short positioning on the AUD suggests a higher potential for upside pressure as positions are squared
Further out (bolding mine):
- In the longer term, external factors will likely be the predominant drivers of AUD/USD and the lack of a clear resolution in the US-China trade tensions suggests that a re-escalation is still possible.
- A cut in July or August by the RBA may, therefore, have a limited impact on the long-term AUD outlook. As long as the central bank maintains its easing bias, the upside potential for AUD will likely be limited, leaving it to trade-related news to move the market.