The statement accompanying the September announcement was read by most in the market as reducing the RBA’s previous easing bias, to a more neutral stance (link to summary, and to full statement)
The August minutes did not have a strong easing bias – the RBA said “Regarding the communication of this decision, members agreed that the Bank should neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further, nor signal an imminent intention to reduce rates further.” That’s a very weak easing bias only.
Given the RBA wants the AUD to fall further the likelihood is the minutes of the September meeting will have a little more of an easing bias, which may raise the probability of a November rate cut. An October rate cut does not seem likely.
The ‘Summers rally’ in the AUD yesterday cleared out many a short, so an increase in easing bias could well see selling pressure push the AUD down.
The minutes are out at 11.30am local time, 0130GMT
