RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday 3 August 2021 - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Reserve Bank of Australia statement is at 0430 GMT Tuesday. Earlier preview here:

Points via ING from what they are expecting:
  • We think policymakers in Sydney (a city that is about to spend the whole month of August in lockdown) will not make any amendment to the current policy stance after the adjustments announced in early July. 
  • The jump in inflation to 3.8% in 2Q should be dismissed as transitory, and the Bank will likely wait for more indications from the labour market before reacting on the policy side. 
  • The recent spread of the Delta Variant, which is triggering fresh restrictions in Australia, is likely another reason why the RBA should revert from sounding more hawkish or upbeat on the recovery at this meeting. It's key to note that, differently from the US and Europe, only 14% of Australians are fully vaccinated. We think the RBA won't be able to lift AUD .... with the currency that may remain a laggard in the pro-cyclical space and face material downside risks if iron ore prices keep falling.
And, via ASB:
  • maintain current monetary policy settings by keeping the cash rate at 0.1% and retaining the Apr 24 AGS yield target at 0.1%. 
  • However, we do expect the RBA to announce a reversal of the planned mid-September tapering in the bond buying program, notably because the Greater Sydney lockdown is likely to cause a contraction in Q3 GDP. The statement accompanying the meeting will highlight the RBA's latest view on the economy and will preview the full set of economic forecasts to be released in the Statement of Monetary Policy on Friday.
BNZ:
  • RBA is expected to reverse its previous decision to taper its bond purchase pace from September when it meets this week. Some economists are even looking for it to increase its weekly purchase pace from the current $5b per week. 
  • The market has pushed back the expected timing of the first RBA hike from late 2022 into 2023.
NAB:
  • The RBA meets on Tuesday amid expectations that it will backflip on its decision to taper asset purchases due to Sydney's protracted lockdown. NAB's view is that the RBA will reverse its taper decision, keeping purchases at $5bn a week until Feb 2022 with the lockdown meaning the RBA is further away from its goals of full employment and inflation sustainably at target. Updated SoMP forecasts on Friday will need to incorporate the impacts of the lockdown. 
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