RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday 4 May 2021 - preview
The Reserve Bank of Australia statement is due at 0430 GMT. Earlier previews:
- RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday 4 May 2021 - preview (surprise coming?)
- RBA policy meeting Tuesday 4 May, and that's not all from the Bank this week
- RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday 4 May 2021 - preview
- AUDUSD stalls near MA/swing areas
We don't think the RBA will signal any adjustments to its policy mix.
- The cash rate target will be expected to remain at 0.1% 'until 2024 at the earliest',
- quantitative easing (QE) will continue,
- the expectation that the term funding facility (TFF) will end in June will remain
- and the RBA will reiterate that a decision about whether or not to roll the 3y yield target will be made 'later in the year.' The most likely date for this decision is the RBA's August meeting, though Governor Lowe has a key speech in July where he may provide a clear signal of intent about this and also the likely size of the QE extension that we expect to occur when the current one ends.
Later this week we will get the Bank's latest SoMP (the once a quarter Statement on Monetary Policy) at which ANZ expect the RBA to update its unemployment forecasts, slashing it to 4.5% (by the middle of 2023) from its current forecast at 5.25%.