RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday 4 May 2021 - preview (surprise coming?)
Reserve Bank of Australia statement due at 0430 GMT. Earlier previews:
- Our central view is that the RBA will maintain current policy settings
- We anticipate that the extension of the Yield Curve Control Policy (YCC) to target the November 2024 bonds from the April 2024 bonds; and a third QE program of $100 billion to begin in the first week of September, will come later in the year at the Board meeting on August 3.
- However, in recent times, the meetings which have been linked to the Statements on Monetary Policy have incorporated policy initiatives. Of the two initiatives we expect to be announced in August, the one most likely to be brought forward to May would be the extension of YCC to the November 2024 bond
An extension os easy policy should, at the margin, be a bearish factor for AUD> Do be aware though that global factors are playing a larger roles in the FX rate at present.